Bills set to receive shellacking in New England
After dropping their first two games to a pair of likely playoff teams, the Buffalo Bills are on their way to New England for a Week 3 contest against the 2-0 Patriots. New England has outscored its opponents, two postseason clubs from last year (the San Diego Chargers and New York Jets), by a combined score of 76-28, having won both games by identical totals of 38-14.
Considering their demolition of those two teams, it's expected the struggling Bills, whose offense and defense are both ranked 31st out of 32 NFL teams, will be destroyed in an even more humiliating manner. Coming off a 26-3 loss in Pittsburgh, going to Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., is the last thing Buffalo needs.
Will the Bills have any chance against the Pats? Let's take a look.
Buffalo's offense against New England's defense:
Entering last week's game, Bills running back Marshawn Lynch was set to face a Steeler defense that was then ranked No. 1 against the rush. One week later, it's the same story for the rookie first-rounder (New England is now first). The 215-pound Marshawn Lynch ran hard in Pittsburgh and totaled 85 yards (64 rushing, 21 receiving) in a losing effort. He was the only skill-position player on Buffalo's offense who really came to the fore and fared relatively well.
The Patriots have excellent run-stuffing defenders scattered all over their 'D,' and they held the league's top back, LaDainian Tomlinson, to 43 yards on 18 carries last week. In their Week 1 victory over the Jets, New York RB Thomas Jones was contained to just 42 yards on 14 carries. Obviously, then, New England hasn't exactly had difficulty keeping two established runners in check.
Despite that, it wouldn't be wise to bet against Marshawn Lynch. If the Patriots underestimate the 22-year-old -- which isn't likely but not impossible -- he's liable to have a solid game. Offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild will have to give the ball to Marshawn Lynch more than the 18 times he received it last week, especially early in the game. Establishing the run will allow Buffalo to keep its defense off the field, open up play-action passes and wear down the New England 'D.'
Quarterback J.P. Losman has been encouraging Fairchild to open up the Bills' offense, so it will be interesting to see what happens with that. When Fairchild loosened the reins on Losman late last year, Buffalo finished 5-4 and became one of the league's most explosive offenses. Unfortunately, though, it seems as if Losman's late-season magic from 2006 has faded away, and it also seems that Fairchild has lost confidence in his QB.
Losman has aerial yardage totals of 97 versus Denver in Week 1 and 154 against the Steelers (most of which came in garbage time), and improving further in a road contest taking on the league's sixth-ranked pass defense won't be easy. Last week, the Patriots' defense embarrassed San Diego QB Philip Rivers, holding him to 179 yards, two interceptions and a fumble lost.
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick will do everything in his power to confuse Losman with his complicated defensive schemes; when you think about what Belichick's 'D' did to Rivers, a smarter, better QB than Losman, that spells trouble for Buffalo.
The Pats' front seven includes D-linemen Ty Warren (7½ sacks last year) and Jarvis Green (7½ in '06, already two this season), both of whom can get to the passer, and rushing linebackers Adalius Thomas (two Pro Bowls), Rosie Colvin (50½ career sacks, two this season) and Mike Vrabel (his 3½ sacks lead all NFL linebackers). That group of five will definitely attempt to attack Losman throughout the afternoon, and chances are they'll break through Buffalo's offensive line and succeed. Although the Bills' O-line has held up fairly well this year, particularly for a group that has three new starters and is still jelling, it's still susceptible to the opposing rush and has allowed six sacks in '07. In fairness, some of those have been on Losman, who tends to hold the ball too long and panic in the face of the rush.
When Losman is given time to throw, he'll have to find No. 1 receiver Lee Evans, who has been nonexistent this season. Evans will battle a combination of Pro Bowl cornerback Asante Samuel and No. 2 man Ellis Hobbs, who is also a capable corner. If the Bills actually do open up the playbook, they'll try to hit Evans deep, but he has zero touchdown grabs in six career contests against New England.
The Patriots will also have to account for slot WR Josh Reed, who Losman says is the offense's smartest player, over the middle. Speedster Roscoe Parrish, who led the Bills with six catches for 56 yards last week, is an explosive weapon for the Bills, one the Patriots will absolutely have to pay the utmost respect. The Pats have versatile CBs in Brandon Meriweather and Randall Gay, both of whom are capable of using their size to stymie the smallish Parrish (5-foot-9, 171 pounds) at the line of scrimmage. Meriweather, a rookie first-round pick, is 5-11, 200, and Gay is 5-11, 190.
Buffalo's defense against New England's offense:
Patriots running back Laurence Maroney was expected to break out this season, the second of his career, but he hasn't necessarily lived up to the hype just yet. In fairness to Maroney, whose powerful, speedy running style is similar to Marshawn Lynch's, he does have 149 yards on an impressive 4.3 per-carry average. Some of his carries have been taken away by backup Sammy Morris, especially near the goal line.
This week, however, expect Maroney to have a huge game. The Bills' defense allowed 139 yards on just 23 carries to Denver's featured back, Travis Henry, and surrendered 126 yards on 23 attempts to the Steelers' Willie Parker. As he did in last year's season-opening win over Buffalo, a 19-17 nail-biter at Gillette, Maroney will wear down the Bills' defense and run directly toward ends Aaron Schobel and Chris Kelsay throughout the contest. Neither is strong against the run; in fact, they've been even weaker versus the rush than the Bills' tackles, who were supposed to be the defense's biggest problem area in stopping opposing backs.
"Their defensive ends pass rush 100 percent all the time, so I knew it was going to leave a hole in the gap [to the outside], and that's where I ran," said Parker, referring to Schobel and Kelsay.
Therefore, expect offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to call for plenty of outside runs for the 220-pound Maroney. After all, it worked to perfection for the Steelers.
As well as Maroney will probably play this Sunday, look for future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady to perform even better. Brady has been the league's top QB during his eight-year career, but he seems to be on the ultimate mission this season. The 30-year-old has tossed six touchdowns against only one interception, also posting an unheard-of 134.2 passer rating and incredible 79.7 completion percentage on 59 attempts.
Facing a depleted defense with neither a pass rush nor cornerbacks capable of containing wide high-level receivers, a 400-yard afternoon won't be out of the question for Brady. He currently has the league's best receiver in Randy Moss, who already has 17 catches for 288 yards and three touchdowns, and he's complemented by Donte' Stallworth and slot wideout extraordinaire Wes Welker, whose totals include a terrific 14 grabs for 152 yards. Bills fans had better wish CBs Terrence McGee, Ashton Youboty & Co. luck; they're gonna need it.
One more thing: Moss is 6-4, 210, and not a single one of Buffalo's top four corners is 6 feet or 200 pounds. Yikes.
Two X factors for Buffalo:
1. Aaron Schobel. Though he's struggled so far this year, Schobel does have 10½ career sacks in just 12 games against Brady. Schobel will need to get in Brady's face throughout the game and pressure him. Otherwise, Brady will totally pick apart Buffalo's defense.
"He's tough. He's killed us," said Belichick, who has been impressed by Schobel.
2. Special teams. The Bills' ST unit must perform well every week, of course, but it's doubly important in this game. After all, it is the team's strongest phase of the game, much more so than offense and defense. As bad as the Bills are, they do have world-class special teamers in return men McGee and Parrish and punter Brian Moorman. Additionally, their coverage teams are excellent. Don't expect Buffalo to let Hobbs return a kick a league-record 108 yards for a touchdown, which he did against the Jets two weeks ago.
Prediction: Patriots 41, Bills 13.
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